Economic Decline and Fragility of the Nigerian State, 2005 – 2022: Empirical investigation

Abstract

This study examined the nexus between economic decline indicators for Nigeria and the fragility of the nation.  The indicators ex-ray what impact they collectively have on the society as a whole.  On the average, economic decline indicators for a country reveal their potency on the inability of the country to meet the basic needs of the citizens and drive development. They also make a nation dependent on developed countries because of its inability to sustain itself. The extent to which economic decline index of a country affects a nation is measured by its Fragile State Index points.  Nigeria’s fragile state index formed the dependent variable in this study.  The explanatory variables are some of the economic decline indicators considered adequate for this study, viz: human flight rate, human right and rule of law index, and rate of security threats in the country.  Time series data for the period 2005 – 2022 extracted from Fund for Peace International were used in the study.  The data was subjected to Augmented Dickey Fuller Unit Root test to ascertain their stationarity so as to avoid making erroneous inferences from a spurious regression results.  The test results showed a mixed order of integration at level and first differencing.  Consequently, Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) Bounds test of co-integration was estimated to establish the existence of long run relationship between the explained and explanatory variables.  The result showed a highly significant association between the variables as revealed by the ARDL Bounds Test F-Statistic value (5.938383) which is above the 5 percent critical value bounds.  The short and long run coefficients established significant relationships between human right and rule of law index of the country and fragile State index of Nigeria.  Given the results, the study recommends among others that human rights and rule of law be accorded their proper place for the development of the Nigerian State.